Major Equity Markets 2010: Fisher Capital Management Part 2
The euro-zone economy improved much faster than expected in the
second quarter of the year.
Growth is estimated to have been around
the 1% level, the fastest quarterly level for three years; and this has
eased the fears about a move into a “double-dip” recession, at least...
Mais
Major Equity Markets 2010: Fisher Capital Management Part 2 The euro-zone economy improved much faster than expected in the second quarter of the year. Growth is estimated to have been around the 1% level, the fastest quarterly level for three years; and this has eased the fears about a move into a “double-dip” recession, at least for the moment. But it is a two-speed recovery, with the German economy estimated to have grown by 2. 2% during the quarter, the Netherlands economy by 0. 9%, and the French economy by 0. 6%, but with Spain and Portugal basically unchanged and the Greek economy falling further into recession. With domestic demand weak, it is therefore essential that overseas demand remains buoyant if German exports are going to continue to drive the overall economy forward; but this is now very uncertain, and so growth projections for the rest of this year and for 2011 are still fairly cautious. However the European Central Bank is maintaining its optimistic view of prosp
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Pub. em Maio 30th 2011
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Major Equity Markets 2010: Fisher Capital Management Part 1
Sentiment in the equity markets has been steady over the past month.
Markets in Europe have been unable to resist downward pressure.
The
Japanese market is also lower; but there has been resistance amongst
the emerging markets in South East Asia that are supported by more...
Mais
Major Equity Markets 2010: Fisher Capital Management Part 1 Sentiment in the equity markets has been steady over the past month. Markets in Europe have been unable to resist downward pressure. The Japanese market is also lower; but there has been resistance amongst the emerging markets in South East Asia that are supported by more favourable economic conditions. The Chinese authorities are obviously determined to prevent their economy from overheating. The global recovery will therefore only proceed at a very slow pace, and there may well be setbacks along the way, although a move into a “double-dip” recession still seems unlikely. There is also an increased danger of a sovereign debt default by Greece, and possibly even by Ireland. But the swing in sentiment should not go too far. So long as monetary policy remains supportive, the global economic recovery is likely to continue, and this will eventually produce a sustainable improvement in equity prices. Patience will therefore
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Pub. em Maio 26th 2011
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World Trade 2010: Fisher Capital Management
One of the more encouraging developments has been the rapid recovery
in the level of world trade.
The recession in 2009 had a dramatic effect,
and the volume of world exports dropped by around 12%.
But largely because large parts of the global economy, and especially
China and other...
Mais
World Trade 2010: Fisher Capital Management One of the more encouraging developments has been the rapid recovery in the level of world trade. The recession in 2009 had a dramatic effect, and the volume of world exports dropped by around 12%. But largely because large parts of the global economy, and especially China and other countries in South East Asia, were relatively unaffected by the recession, the rebound in trading volumes had been very impressive. There is already talk of reviving the Doha round of trade liberalisation talks that collapsed in 2008. However it will be necessary for relations between the US and China to improve substantially before any real progress can be made, and present disagreements suggest that progress will only be possible at a very slow pace, even if the global economic recovery remains on track. Major Equity Markets Sentiment in the equity markets has been steady over the past month. Markets in Europe have been unable to resist downward pressure.
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Pub. em Maio 26th 2011
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Fisher Capital Management News: Equity Markets
Equity Markets: All the major equity markets, and most of the emerging
markets, Are stable over the past month.
There had been expectations
that the Fed might introduce further quantitative easing measures at
its recent OMC meeting, and this provided some support for the markets
in the...
Mais
Fisher Capital Management News: Equity Markets Equity Markets: All the major equity markets, and most of the emerging markets, Are stable over the past month. There had been expectations that the Fed might introduce further quantitative easing measures at its recent OMC meeting, and this provided some support for the markets in the early part of the month; but it made only very modest. Government Bond Markets: The major government bond markets have made further significant gains over the past month, despite the funding pressures resulting form huge fiscal deficits, and the renewed concerns about debt defaults. Short-term interest rates have remained low, and monetary policy has been supportive; but it has been the enhanced “safe haven” status of these markets that has provided most of the momentum, as investors have sought “shelter from the current storm”. However the moves have surprised most commentators, and this has led to warnings about “bond bubbles” that will not be sustaine
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Pub. em Maio 10th 2011
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Fisher Capital Management News: Commodity Markets 2010
The performance of the commodity markets remains very impressive.
Speculative activity is a major factor, and supply shortages, often the
result of adverse weather conditions, are also providing considerable
support; but there is clearly a view amongst both traders and investors...
Mais
Fisher Capital Management News: Commodity Markets 2010 The performance of the commodity markets remains very impressive. Speculative activity is a major factor, and supply shortages, often the result of adverse weather conditions, are also providing considerable support; but there is clearly a view amongst both traders and investors that the general level of prices is too low, and that they will move higher. Over the longer-term that view is likely to prove to be justified. Commodity markets have been extremely volatile over the past month, rising strongly in the early part of the period, but falling back sharply towards month-end concerns about the effects of the austerity measures being introduced in Europe, and indications of a continuing slowdown in China, have combined to increase fears but for most of the past month traders and investors apparently decided that the gloom was overdone; and commodity prices also benefited from some “safe haven” buying by investment funds. Base
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Pub. em Maio 10th 2011
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Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2 - The UK Emergency Budget
Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2- The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much
worse.
The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in
£13 billion.
On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing
public sector pay, indexing...
Mais
Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2 - The UK Emergency Budget Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2- The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much worse. The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in £13 billion. On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing public sector pay, indexing state benefits to the CPI rather than the faster-rising RPI and freezing child benefits. State pensions will be indexed to the higher of wages or the CPI but the pension age will be raised to 66 fairly soon. Interest rates are projected to remain low, with inflation absent; and it is possible that Quantitative Easing will need to be resumed but on present prospects this seems unlikely to be necessary. Another concern is with the regulative proposals. There is an antibank mentality developing in this coalition government, which is most unfortunate; much of it seems to emanate from Vince Cable and the Lib Dems. Yet a moment’s thought should be enough to
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Pub. em Jan. 17th 2011
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Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 1
Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) historic
lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly
frittered away a chest brimming with political...
Mais
Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 1 Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) historic lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly frittered away a chest brimming with political capital. Major newspapers said that Hatoyama was resigning mainly for two reasons: his failure to keep his promise to relocate the functions of US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Okinawa, out of Okinawa Prefecture, and a political funding scandal that included his mother’s provision of some ¥1. 26 billion to him over years. Following Hatoyama’s resignation, Minister of Finance Naoto Kan was elected as the new Prime Minister, the fifth in four years. At his inaugural press conference Kan proposed a comprehensive reconstruction of the economy, public finance, and social security as his priority, in addition to reforming public administration, and conducting res
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Pub. em Jan. 17th 2011
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Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2
Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) historic
lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly
frittered away a chest brimming with political...
Mais
Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2 Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) historic lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly frittered away a chest brimming with political capital. Major newspapers said that Hatoyama was resigning mainly for two reasons: his failure to keep his promise to relocate the functions of US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Okinawa, out of Okinawa Prefecture, and a political funding scandal that included his mother’s provision of some ¥1. 26 billion to him over years. Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2: Instead of deregulation and lower corporate taxes, he envisions increased employment and consumption through focused government spending in nursing, medicine and other social welfare fields. But some economists expressed doubts; they say there is no guarantee that the positive
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Pub. em Jan. 17th 2011
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The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report Part 1
Fisher Capital Management Report - The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much
worse.
The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in
£13 billion.
On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing
public sector pay, indexing state...
Mais
The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report Part 1 Fisher Capital Management Report - The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much worse. The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in £13 billion. On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing public sector pay, indexing state benefits to the CPI rather than the faster-rising RPI and freezing child benefits. State pensions will be indexed to the higher of wages or the CPI but the pension age will be raised to 66 fairly soon. The disappointment for the UK is on the tax side where compromises with the worst aspects of the Lib Dems are apparent. CGT goes up to 28% for top earners … a mistake. The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report: The 50% top tax rate and associated rise in the top marginal rate on pensions have been left alone. There is a Bank Levy bringing in £2 billion … defensible, just, at this level but it needs remembering that taxpayers generally m
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Pub. em Jan. 10th 2011
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Fisher Capital Management- Financial Market August 2010
Fisher Capital Management- Financial Markets: Sentiment in the financial markets has improved
over the past month.
The global economic recovery is continuing,
so far there have been no sovereign debt defaults, and there has
been a modest recovery in the euro.
Investors and...
Mais
Fisher Capital Management- Financial Market August 2010 Fisher Capital Management- Financial Markets: Sentiment in the financial markets has improved over the past month. The global economic recovery is continuing, so far there have been no sovereign debt defaults, and there has been a modest recovery in the euro. Investors and traders therefore appear to have concluded that the gloom was overdone. But there has been evidence of a worsening situation in Spain, and the decision by the Chinese authorities to adopt a “more flexible” towards renminbi has also raised some concerns about the growth prospects for the Chinese economy. Fisher Capital Management- Equity Markets: All the major equity markets, and the emerging markets, have improved over the past month. Wall Street has outperformed markets elsewhere because of some welcome economic data; there have been strong gains in most of the mainland European markets as the sovereign debt crisis has appeared to ease; the UK market has w
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Pub. em Jan. 10th 2011
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